Whose (trend) Line is it Anyways?

hELlO, wOrLd

Welcome to the first in a series of articles that take you on an amazing journey of marketing, as we explore the various facets and ideas from around the globe that will give you your weekly dose of marketing. We are starting with a two-part series that explores the relevance of trends in marketing, the different types of trends and the role of technology in helping marketers identify and extract insight from them. (Bonus: We also have some resources for the budding trend spotters out there!)

A ‘trend’ indicates a general direction towards which something tends to move. It’s something that is all around us. All the tiktok challenges you have done in recent times? Or that disgusting green smoothie you bought because it was healthy? Or that celebrity you decided to cancel because of something they did.

Yep, all trends.

Lisa White from The Vision explains in WGSN Mindset’s White Paper, “We don’t create trends. They are all around us. I always say that the past and future are present – you just need to pick up the signals and analyse them.”

So how is it relevant in marketing? A trend comes in different forms, and depending on its lifecycle and adaptability can have significant impacts on the products themselves. A macrotrend spans at least five years, and affects several industries. These trends continue to evolve from year to year. The wellness boom is one of the prominent macrotrends that currently exists.

On the other hand, microtrends are something that start with early influencers, and are widely adopted within a year or two.

A general confusion that arises is the difference between a trend and a fad. A fad is short term craze that gains popularity quickly, but loses it with the same momentum (Remember where you kept that fidget spinner of yours? Yeah, us neither)

In contrast, trends take time to develop as they mature and evolve over a period of time. It is essential for a marketer to be able to differentiate a fad from a trend.

In his book ‘Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow’s Big Changes’ published in 2007, Mark Penn points out that the biggest trends in America are the Microtrends.

“The most powerful forces in our society are the emerging, counterintuitive trends that are shaping tomorrow.”

This proliferation of trends has other major implications. Growing microtrends threaten authoritarian regimes and generate personal freedom. Society is switching from a mass-produced “Ford economy” to a “Starbucks economy,” where you make continual personal choices to shape the life you want. As individualization grows, opinion-shapers, from marketers to politicians, will find it necessary to address many different niche markets.

Covid-19 has spurred us into an online-only market, further accelerating the speed of this proliferation by granting access to and gaining attention of millions of users worldwide. These consumption habits have been evolving for years now:  social networks, user-generated content, online prosumers, microbrand competitors. This has proved challenging for big brands who often lack the agility to keep up.

Smaller and more agile microbrands are able to capitalise on niches faster, since they don’t have the constraints of slow decision making or development that bigger brands do.

Glossier is a good example. Founder Emily Weiss started out with a beauty blog that provided women an inclusive platform to share their opinions about beauty and fashion. Using the information gained from hundreds of thousands of such followers, Weiss identified the pain points of the customers and decided to capture the trends she recognised to bring about a disruption in the beauty industry. It took Glossier only five years to generate $150 million in sales, and now it stands as a niche beauty brand valued at $1.2 billion. The biggest reason for their success? Using technology to identify what customers want and including them in every aspect of product development.

The biggest reason for Glossier’s success? Using technology to identify what customers want and including them in every aspect of product development.

While microbrands may not end up as the next market leaders but jointly, they’re cannibalising market share and profits for the big players.

So, how should major corporations react in order to remain relevant? Brands need to catch weak signals and identify if they suggest a broader shift in culture. The more efficient their predictions, the lesser time it takes to produce new products.

The trick is to identify emerging microtrends before they become macro: it’s about recognising what’s going on.

By KRITIKA NIGAM and ELENA SCLOZA